Knock-Out card counting
The profile table below states the level of the system and its balance.
Knock-Out suits a player who wants to bet without dividing anything.
System profile
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Level | 1 |
| Balanced | No |
| Ace neutral | No |
Card tag values
The table gives the tag value for every card rank.
The rank shown as ten covers every ten and every face card.
| Card rank | Tag value |
|---|---|
| 2 | +1 |
| 3 | +1 |
| 4 | +1 |
| 5 | +1 |
| 6 | +1 |
| 7 | +1 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 |
| 10 | -1 |
| A | -1 |
Running count start
The running count starts at the value the formula below returns.
The count starts below zero, and the offset depends on the deck count.
A full shoe then finishes at the same value for every deck count.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Formula | 4 - 4 * decks |
Start value per deck count
| Decks in the shoe | Starting running count |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| 2 | -4 |
| 4 | -12 |
| 5 | -16 |
| 6 | -20 |
| 8 | -28 |
True count conversion
The true count scales the running count to the decks left.
The formula below is derived by the desk, not quoted from a source.
The algebra is reproduced in the trainer test suite and checked on every build.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Formula | 4 + (running_count - 4) / decks_remaining |
Efficiency figures
The two efficiency figures state what the count predicts well.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Betting correlation | 0.98 |
| Playing efficiency | 0.55 |
| Insurance correlation | n.a. |
Index plays
Knock-Out borrows the Hi-Lo index numbers and applies them to the Knock-Out true count.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Convention | Act at or above the index true count. |
Below the index the player plays basic strategy.
Published exceptions against a dealer ten
Three plays against a dealer ten are published as running counts.
The source states the three plays as running counts, so the table keeps them.
| Play | Player hand | Dealer up card | Critical running count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | Hard 14 | Dealer 10 | crc(7) |
| Surrender | Hard 14 | Dealer 10 | crc(2) |
| Surrender | Hard 13 | Dealer 10 | crc(6) |
Critical running count formula
The source states a critical running count for a given true count.
The formula below uses the start at zero formulation from that source.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Formula | crc(t) = 4 * decks + (t - 4) * decks_remaining |
Pivot
The pivot is a running count, not a true count.
The pivot value below comes from the same source as the start count.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Pivot running count | +4 |
Key counts
We sourced one key count, for a shoe of two decks.
The other key counts are not published, so the table states that.
| Decks in the shoe | Value |
|---|---|
| 1 | n.a. |
| 2 | +1 |
| 4 | n.a. |
| 5 | n.a. |
| 6 | n.a. |
| 8 | n.a. |
Where these figures come from
Every tag value and every figure on this page traces to a source below.
- https://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm
- https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/KOBJ-Sample.pdf
- https://www.blackjackreview.com/wp/2025/09/14/ko-with-table-of-critical-running-counts-2/